AddressThe main objective is to generate the best fit statistical forecast model as possible on a monthly basis for the company's main business units globally, providing this Baseline for building the Demand Plan (DMR) within the IBP cycle.
Statistical Forecast is the base across Akzo's Nobel business units for the development of the IBP's Demand Plan.
- Demand Hub must keep generating the Statistical Forecast for all 58 Commercial Units within 8 Business Unit, which already started the Go-Live in 2023.
- Focusing on Automation and KPI's Results: FA, FB, FVA.
- Identifing, aligning, raising, implementing and monitoring opportunities for improvements in KPIs.
- Aligments with BPOs when required actions needed developments in OMP or Dart.
- Align with the Business on the different demand scenarios (e.g. headwind/ tailwind) to be included in OMP and align with the Demand Data Scientist on realization.
Responsibilities:
Generate statistical forecast:
- Ensure the data quality that will be used as a Statistical Base Forecast, identifying, and flagging data anomalies and taking corrective actions.
- Ensure the flow of activities and execution of established procedures for generating the monthly statistical forecast.
- Identifying and removing Outliers together with the demand planning areas, ensuring it will be uploaded in our main tool and historical base will be cleaned up.
- Analysis of Outliers automatically identified by the statistical engine system.
- Mapping of Phase In/Out items, aligning with the demand areas to upload in the system.
Forecast performance analysis:
- Focus on statistical forecasts of the most representative and most critical items based on the ABC/XYZ curve.
- Focus on the long term, m3 onwards.
- Evaluate whether the results of the main KPIs meet expectations, Accuracy, BIAS and FVA (Forecast Value Added), in Lag-1, Lag-3 and Lag-6. If they are below the expected results, understand the reasons and propose and implement solutions to achieve the goals.
- Conduct monthly meetings to align statistical forecast with business units, results and outlook, seasonality, trends and levels. Explaining with details the reasons of what is changing between cycles, updates considering the most recent results or regarding to improvements.
- Evaluate and test different methods and statistical models at different calculation levels in order to obtain the best results, aligning with the demand team of each business units. Statistical tool currently used is OMP.
Continuous Improvement Mindset:
- Explore alternatives on how we can achieve better results in terms of Accuracy and BIAS (reducing forecast error). Pro-actively seek for means and methods or auxiliary tools to enhance the forecast performance and overwriting the statistical forecast in OMP whenever is necessary.
- Follow up on improvements already mapped to ensure the effectiveness of actions and conclusion of developments in Quality and Production environments.
- Consistent communication with internal customers (Demand Planners, demand managers), to understand their needs, identifying opportunities for improvement, proposing solutions, and monitoring their effectiveness, and aligning expectations considering our restrictions, which is making them aware of what is viable, always with transparency.
- Achieve credibility of our internal customers, demonstrating the value our area adds to the demand plan consensus.
